USD/JPY's rise from 81.12 extended further to as high as 83.66 last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Sustained break of 83.67 resistance will confirm out bullish view that rise form 80.93 is resuming and should target 84.49 resistance first. On the downside, below 83.19 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But another rally will remain in favor as long as 82.20 support holds.
In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.