USD/JPY's sharp fall last week suggests that rebound from 81.12 has completed at 83.96 already. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 81.12 support first. 80.93/81.12 support first. Decisive break there will strong suggests that consolidation pattern from 80.29 is completed at 83.96 already and should send USD/JPY through 80.29 low. On the upside, above 82.17 minor resistance will turn bias neutral to extend recent choppy sideway trading.

In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, break of 84.49 resistance, though, will argue that a medium term bottom is likely formed and will turn focus back to 85.92 cluster resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.

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