USD/JPY's fall was contained at 81.57 last week and rebounded. The development suggests that sideway consolidation from 80.29 is still in progress and we'd expect more choppy range trading ahead. Nevertheless, upside of any further rebound should be limited by 83.96 resistance. Meanwhile, break of 80.93 support will be the first signal of down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, with 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89) intact, there is no confirmation of reversal yet and the longer term down trend in USD/JPY is possibly still in progress for another test on 79.75 (1995 low). Decisive break of 79.75 will target 61.8% projection of 94.97 to 80.29 from 84.49 at 75.41 next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 85.92 cluster resistance will indicate that a medium term bottom is at least formed and stronger rebound should be seen through 90 psychological level.
In the long term picture, there is no indication of trend reversal yet and USD/JPY's long term down trend could still extend further to 1995 low of 79.75. We'd anticipate some strong support from 79.75 initially to bring rebound. Focus will be on whether 79.75 would hold or USD/JPY is indeed resuming the multi decade decline that started back in the 80's.