USD/JPY dips to as low as 75.94 last week and the break of 76.28 confirms resumption of the whole fall from 85.51. initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen towards 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. On the upside, above 76.96 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But still, we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect more downside ahead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.