USD/JPY is still bounded in familiar range last week as recent consolidation continued. Initial bias remains neutral this week. On the upside, above 77.68 will bring another rise to extend the recovery from 75.94. But after al, we'll stay bearish as long as 80.23 and expect and eventual downside breakout. On the downside, below 76.41 minor support t will flip bias back to the downside for 75.94. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 85.51.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

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