USD/JPY sideway trading from 75.94 continued last week and outlook remains unchanged. Stronger recovery might be seen initially this week but upside is expected to be limited by near term falling trend line (now at 77.71) and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 76.11 will turn bias back to the downside and break of 75.94 low will confirm resumption of whole fall from 85.51 and would target 70 psychological level.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

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