USD/JPY's rise from 84.81 is still in progress and extends further to as high as 93.05 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside and break of 100% projection of 84.81 to 90.75 from 87.36 at 93.30 will target resistance zone of medium term trend line resistance at 95.21 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.26 next. On the downside, though, note that upside momentum remains unconvincing with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 91.90 minor support will argue that rise form 84.81 has finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 87.36 support first.
In the bigger picture, at this point, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 95.21 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.26. Hence, there is no clear indication of reversal yet. A break of 87.36 support will indicate that rebound form 84.81 has completed and the whole fall form 124.13 is possibly resuming for 1995 low of 79.75.
However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 124.13 is still in progress after breaking out of the long term triangle pattern and a test on 79.75 low made in 1995 should be seen. The structure of the current fall from 101.43 will be important to determine whether 79.75 will be taken out decisively. Acceleration of the current fall from 101.43 will build up downside momentum which should then pull monthly MACD away from the signal line and will indicate that fall from 124.13 is resuming the multi-decade down trend. However, loss of downside momentum in the coming fall will indicate that it's possibly just part of a long term sideway pattern from 79.95 and strong support should be seen after breaching 79.75 to conclude the medium term fall.
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