USD/JPY's fall from 93.74 extended further to as low as 89.77 last week despite some brief intra week recovery. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 87.36 support next. As noted before, whole rise from 84.10 should have completed with three waves up to 93.74 already. Break of 87.36 will confirm this case and indicate that medium term down trend is indeed resuming for another low below 84.81. ON the upside, above 90.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 91.86 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below medium term trend line resistance at 94.71 and 55 weeks EMA at 94.07. Whole down trend from 124.13 is likely still in progress and a break of 84.81 will target 1995 low of 79.75. However, note bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above the medium trend line resistance will be the first signal of medium term reversal and in such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation.
In the long term picture, fall from 124.13 is still in progress after breaking out of the long term triangle pattern and a test on 79.75 low made in 1995 should be seen. The structure of the current fall from 101.43 will be important to determine whether 79.75 will be taken out decisively. Acceleration of the current fall from 101.43 will build up downside momentum which should then pull monthly MACD away from the signal line and will indicate that fall from 124.13 is resuming the multi-decade down trend. However, loss of downside momentum in the coming fall will indicate that it's possibly just part of a long term sideway pattern from 79.95 and strong support should be seen after breaching 79.75 to conclude the medium term fall.