USD/JPY's fall from 79.52 extended further last week and reached as low as 76.57. Downside momentum was not convincing, and the look of such fall is corrective. But after all, there is no sign of near term reversal yet. And, as long as 77.49 minor resistance holds, deeper decline could be seen to retest 75.56 low. Nonetheless, break of 77.49 will indicate that such corrective fall is finished and will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 79.52 next.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 75.56 was strong, USD/JPY is still staying inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is still no clear indication of long term trend reversal even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd still favor further downside in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and USD/JPY could spiral down further to 70 psychological level.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

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