USD/JPY's choppy recovery from 88.57 continued last week and extended to 90.40 so far. Such recovery might continue initially this week but after all, upside is expected to be limited below 91.26 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 89.56 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and bring fall resumption towards 87.36 support first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 and medium term down term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.26 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.

In the bigger picture, the whole down trend from 124.13 should still be in progress even though downside momentum is seen diminishing in bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd continue to extend more decline in USD/JPY and break of 84.81 should target 1995 low of 79.75. Strong break of 93.74 resistance and sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA (now at 93.50) are needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the long term picture, fall from 124.13 is still in progress after breaking out of the long term triangle pattern and a test on 79.75 low made in 1995 should be seen. The structure of the current fall from 101.43 will be important to determine whether 79.75 will be taken out decisively. Acceleration of the current fall from 101.43 will build up downside momentum which should then pull monthly MACD away from the signal line and will indicate that fall from 124.13 is resuming the multi-decade down trend. However, loss of downside momentum in the coming fall will indicate that it's possibly just part of a long term sideway pattern from 79.95 and strong support should be seen after breaching 79.75 to conclude the medium term fall.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY