USD/JPY's rebound from 76.57 extended further last week and the development argues that pull back from 79.52 might be finished. Though, price actions from 76.57 so far is not convincing impulsive yet and thus, we still have much reservation in the case of resumption of rally from 75.56. But in any case, initial bias will remain on the upside this week for a test on 79.52 resistance. On the downside, break of 77.00 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 76.57 and below to extend the fall from 79.52.
In the bigger picture, note again that there is no sign of long term trend reversal in USD/JPY yet even though downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. USD/JPY is still trading inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13, and below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Not to mention that it's far below the falling 55 months EMA. Rebound from 75.56 low could extend higher and beyond 80 psychological level. But it could turn out to be a corrective three wave rally in the end. So, we'd at least prefer to see sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 80.23) to before considering the case of reversal. And break of 85.51 resistance will need to confirm. Otherwise, anything happens now will be viewed as corrective and an eventual break of 75.56 low to 70 psychological level is still favored.
In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.