USD/JPY's rise from 88.57 accelerated to as high as 92.14 last week. The strong break of 91.26 resistance indicates that fall from 93.74 has completed with three waves down to 88.57 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that rise from 88.57 is probably resuming the rally from 84.81. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to retest 93.74 resistance next. Below 91.18 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 90.56 support is needed to indicate that rise from 88.57 is finished. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor.

In the bigger picture, the strong rise from 88.57 suggests that whole medium term rally from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74. One important thing to note is that decisive break of 93.74 resistance will also have 55 weeks EMA (now at 93.42) firmly taken out too and that will be an important signal that whole long term down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is over. In such case, focus will turn to 101.43 resistance for confirmation. Hence, much focus will now be on whether 93.74 resistance will be taken out decisively. On the downside, though, break of 88.57 will revive the case that long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in force and will put focus back to 84.81 low instead.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD back above signal line. However, there is no confirm mater of long term reversal yet. Down trend from 124.13 might still continue as long as 101.43 resistance holds and might extend further towards 79.75. Nevertheless, break of 101.43 resistance will break the lower high lower low pattern and will suggest that a long term bottom is in place. The trend should then reversed to continue the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY