USD/JPY's rebound from 76.57 extended to 78.28 last week but dipped sharply to 77.30. However, no follow through selling was seen since then and the pair recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week. Nonetheless, so far, price actions from 76.57 are corrective looking and should be the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 79.52. That is, such consolidation from 79.52 is not finished yet and there should be at least one more near term fall. Hence, above 78.28 will extend the rise from 76.57 but strong resistance should be seen below 79.52 and bring another fall. Below 77.30 should flip bias to the downside for 76.57 and below.

In the bigger picture, note again that there is no sign of long term trend reversal in USD/JPY yet even though downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. USD/JPY is still trading inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13, and below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Not to mention that it's far below the falling 55 months EMA. Rebound from 75.56 low could extend higher and beyond 80 psychological level. But it could turn out to be a corrective three wave rally in the end. So, we'd at least prefer to see sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 80.15) to before considering the case of reversal. And break of 85.51 resistance will need to confirm. Otherwise, anything happens now will be viewed as corrective and an eventual break of 75.56 low to 70 psychological level is still favored.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.

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