USD/JPY lost some upside momentum after hitting mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 88.13 to 91.08 from 89.83 at 94.60 but after all, intraday bias would remain on the upside for further rally as long as 93.61 minor support holds. Rise from 88.13 is part of the whole medium term rally from 84.81 and should be targeting 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06. On the downside, below 93.61 will indicate that a temporary top is in place and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 91.08 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 93.07) affirms the bullish case that whole down trend form 124.13 has completed at 84.81 already. Stronger rally should now be seen to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirmation. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bullish.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY