USD/JPY's retreat from 94.68 extended further to as low as 92.82 and did draw some support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 89.83 to 94.68 at 92.82. However, momentum of subsequent recovery was weak and the pair weakened again. Initial bias is neutral this week and a break below 92.82 will bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 89.83 to 94.68 at 91.68 before concluding the correction. On the upside, above 93.77 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 94.68 high.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 93.03) affirms the bullish case that whole down trend from 124.13 has completed at 84.81 already. Stronger rally should now be seen to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirmation. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY