After much volatility last week, USD/JPY is still staying in range of 91.59/94.68. The pair lost some intraday momentum ahead of 94.68 resistance, as seen with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. The development suggests that recent rally is not ready to resume yet. Initial bias will be mildly on the downside for 91.59 support to continue the consolidation from 94.68. Though, downside will likely be contained by this 91.59 support and finally bring rally resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 94.68 will confirm the rise from 88.13 has resumed and should target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06 next.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole down trend from 124.13 is completed at 84.81 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI. We'd expect stronger rally towards 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case. On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, the long term down trend in USD/JPY might have reversed. Focus now turns to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone and decisive break there will also break the lower high lower low pattern since 124.13. This will suggest that a long term bottom is in place and another rising leg of the sideway pattern that started at 79.75 in 1995 should then be in progress for upper side of the range at 147.68.