At least a short term top is in place at 94.97, no doubt. Recovery from 88.25 might have finished at 93.20 already and initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 88.13 key support level. On the upside, above 93.20 will suggest that rise fro 88.25 is still in progress. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited below 94.97 high. Even in the most bullish scenario, USD/JPY should stay below 94.97 for a while.

In the bigger picture, the exaggerated volatility last week mixed up the overall outlook in USD/JPY and we'd stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 88.13 support will indicate that rise from 84.81 has completed at 94.97 already. The three wave corrective structure will in turn indicate that down trend from 124.13 is not completed yet and would bring another fall to 84.81 and below. On the upside, though, break of 94.97 will reaffirm the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the reversal scenario is not confirmed by break of 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone yet. We'll stay neutral first.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY