USD/JPY's rebound from 88.25 extended to as high as 93.62 last week but Friday's break of 92.22 minor support suggests that a temporary top is formed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 90.86 support and below. On the upside, above 93.62 will indicate that rise from 88.25 has resumed for another rise above 93.62. However, we'd expect upside to be limited below 94.97 high and bring at least one more short term fall.

In the bigger picture, recent volatility mixed up the overall outlook in USD/JPY and we'd stay neutral first. On the downside, break of 88.13 support will indicate that rise from 84.81 has completed at 94.97 already. The three wave corrective structure will in turn indicate that down trend from 124.13 is not completed yet and would bring another fall to 84.81 and below. On the upside, though, break of 94.97 will reaffirm the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the reversal scenario is not confirmed by break of 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone yet. We'll stay neutral first.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY