USD/JPY's rebound from 76.02 extended further to high as 77.80 last week. As noted before, the strength of the rise is starting to argue that choppy fall from 79.52 is finished at 76.02. Initial bias remains cautiously on the upside this week with focus on 78.28 resistance. Decisive break there will signal that whole rebound from 75.56 is resuming for another high above 79.52. On the downside, though, below 77.10 minor support will indicate that rebound from 76.02 is finished and flip bias back to the downside for this support.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal in USD/JPY yet even though downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. USD/JPY is still trading below the falling 55 weeks EMA. Not to mention that it's far below the falling 55 months EMA. The long term down trend is expected to resume sooner or later with an eventual break of 75.56 low to 70 psychological level. In any case, we'd at least prefer to see sustained break of 55 weeks EMA (now at 79.30) before considering the case of reversal.

In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.