USD/JPY soared sharply to as high as 79.60 last week and the break of 79.52 resistance indicates that whole rebound from 75.56 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70 next. On the downside, below 78.98 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, the case of long term reversal is starting to build up as USD/JPY is trading above the long term falling channel that started at 2007 high of 124.13. As noted before, bullish convergence condition is present in weekly MACD for some time already. Sustained trading above 79.52 should at least confirm that 75.65 is a medium term bottom. Further break of 85.51 will indicate reversal and target a test on 101.22 support turned resistance, which is close to 100 psychological level.
In the long term picture, the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.