USD/JPY continued to gyrate inside established range last week. As noted before, price actions from 88.25 are treated as consolidation to fall for 94.97 only. Below 90.53 minor support will argue that such consolidation has possibly completed and will bring decline to 88.25 support for confirmation. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect strong resistance below 93.62 to conclude the rebound from 88.97 and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, considering that USD/JPY failed to sustained above 55 weeks EMA and dropped sharply, we're now slightly favoring the case that down trend from 124.13 is not over. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, break of 94.97 will revive the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.

In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the reversal scenario is not confirmed by break of 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone yet. We'll stay neutral first.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY