USD/JPY's fall from 92.87 finally resumed last week and reached as low as 89.21. Initial bias remains on the downside for 88.97 initially this week. Break will suggest that whole consolidation from 88.25 has completed and fall from 94.97 is resuming for another low below 88.25. On the upside, above 89.76 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 91.46 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still trading below a falling 55 weeks EMA and whole down trend from 124.13 is possibly not over yet. Break of 88.13 support will indicate that rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The corrective structure will affirm the bearish case and pave the way to a new low below 84.81. On the upside, however, break of 94.97 will revive the case that 84.81 is already the long term bottom and will target 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirming this bullish case.
In the long term picture, downside momentum is clearly diminishing with monthly MACD staying above signal line and bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the reversal scenario is not confirmed by break of 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone yet. We'll stay neutral first.