USD/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 86.96 last week. The break of 88.13/25 support zone confirmed that fall from 94.97 has resumed. A temporary low is formed at 86.96 after the fall and hence, some consolidation might be seen initially this week. But recovery should be limited well below 90.27 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 86.96 will target a retest on 84.81 low.

In the bigger picture, the break of 88.13 support confirms that medium term rebound from 84.81 has completed with three waves up to 94.97 already. The corrective structure in turn indicates that whole down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is still in progress. Retest of 84.81 should be seen next and break will confirm down trend resumption for next key level of 79.75 (1995 low). On the upside, break of 94.97 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that USD/JPY has not bottomed out yet and the down trend will extend beyond 84.81 to 79.75. However, we'd be cautious on any sign of loss of momentum and reversal on next fall. USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY