USD/JPY rose to as high as 84.17 last week before forming a temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But downside should be contained above 81.86 resistance turned support and bring another rise. Above 84.17 should extend the rise from 76.02 to retest 85.51 key resistance level next.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is at least formed at 75.56 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus now turns to 85.51 key resistance. Break there will indicate the medium term down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is completed and stronger rise should be seen to target a test on 101.22 support turned resistance, which is close to 100 psychological level. Meanwhile, failure to sustain above 85.51 will bring sideway trading between 75.56/85.51 in medium term instead.

In the long term picture, 75.65 is starting to look like an important bottom in USD/JPY and stronger rebound is now in favor in medium term. However, we're anticipating strong resistance at around 100 psychological level to limit upside of the current rally from 75.56, at least in initial attempt. At this point, we're slightly favoring the case that USD/JPY is turning into a long term sideway pattern between 75/100.