USD/JPY's correction from 84.17 continued last week with another dip to 81.82. Further decline cannot be ruled out yet with 83.38 minor resistance intact. But in that case, downside is expected to be contained by 80.58/81.86 support zone and bring rally resumption eventually. Above 83.38 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside. Further break of 84.17 will extend the rally from 76.02 to 85.51 key resistance level.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is at least formed at 75.56 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Focus remains on 85.51 key resistance. Break there will indicate the medium term down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is completed and stronger rise should be seen to target a test on 101.22 support turned resistance, which is close to 100 psychological level. Meanwhile, failure to sustain above 85.51 will bring sideway trading between 75.56/85.51 in medium term instead.
In the long term picture, 75.65 is starting to look like an important bottom in USD/JPY and stronger rebound is now in favor in medium term. However, we're anticipating strong resistance at around 100 psychological level to limit upside of the current rally from 75.56, at least in initial attempt. At this point, we're slightly favoring the case that USD/JPY is turning into a long term sideway pattern between 75/100.