USD/JPY dropped to 15 year low of 84.71 last week but drew strong support from 84.81 and rebounded. The break of 86.22 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed with 4 bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Initial bias will be cautiously on the upside this week for 88.11 resistance. Break will confirm that decline from 94.97 is finished and will bring stronger rebound. On the downside, though, another fall from 84.71 will confirm that long term down trend has resumed for 80 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 2007 high of 124.13 is still in progress, but there is no confirmation that it has resumed. Consolidation from 84.81 could still have another rising leg and above 88.11 will bring another rise towards 55 week EMA (now at 91.68). But upside should be limited below 94.97 resistance. On the downside, sustained trading below 84.81 will confirm long term down trend resumption for 79.75 (1995 low). In another case, we'll stay bearish as long as 94.97 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that USD/JPY has not bottomed out yet and the down trend will extend beyond 84.81 to 79.75. However, we'd be cautious on any sign of loss of momentum and reversal on next fall.

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