USD/JPY's recovery attempt last week was limited at 81.77 after facing resistance from near term falling channel. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 81.16 minor support will indicate that choppy fall from 84.17 is likely resuming for 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13. Though, break of 81.77 temporary top will now affirm the case that pull back from 84.17 is finished and should pave the way to retest this high.

In the bigger picture, note again that there is bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. USD/JPY is also sustaining above 55 weeks EMA (Now at 80.02). Monthly MACD is also staying above signal line for some time already. These are signs that USD/JPY has bottomed in medium term at 75.56. Break of 85.51 resistance is mildly in favor and in that case, USD/JPY should target a test on 55 months EMA (now at 90.01) next. However, failure to sustain above 85.51 will indicate that the larger down trend is not over and is still in progress for another low below 75.56.

In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes.

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