USD/JPY's rally attempt was limited below 81.77 last week and subsequent fall and break of 80.29 indicates that choppy decline from 84.17 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13 first. Break will pave the way to 75.56/76.02 support zone. On the upside, break of 81.77 resistance is needed to signal reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, 75.56 should be a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the lack of follow through rally and failure below 85.51 resistance argues that the trend hasn't reversed yet. And USD/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation. In any case, outlook will remain mildly bearish in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and a new low below 75.56 is in favor.
In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes.