USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | May 13 2012 3:36 PM

Near term outlook in USD/JPY remains mildly bearish as long as 80.61 minor resistance holds. Current fall from 84.17 is expected to continue lower and below 79.42 will target 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13 first. Break will pave the way to 75.56/76.02 support zone. Meanwhile, above 80.61 will indicate short term bottoming and should bring stronger rebound to 81.77 resistance and possibly above.

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In the bigger picture, 75.56 should be a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the lack of follow through rally and failure below 85.51 resistance argues that the trend hasn't reversed yet. And USD/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation. In any case, outlook will remain mildly bearish in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and a new low below 75.56 is in favor.

In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes.