USD/JPY's decline continued last week and reached as low as 78.99, breaking mentioned 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13. Initial bias remains on the downside the week and current fall should target 75.56/76.02 support zone in near term. On the upside, break of 80.54 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, 75.56 should be a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. However, the lack of follow through rally and failure below 85.51 resistance argues that the trend hasn't reversed yet. And USD/JPY could merely be in sideway consolidation. In any case, outlook will remain mildly bearish in medium term as long as 85.51 resistance holds and a new low below 75.56 is in favor.
In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes.