USD/JPY's fall last week suggests that rebound from 77.66 is already finished at 79.79. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 77.66. Break will extend the whole fall from 84.14 to 75.56/76.02 support zone. As noted before decline from 84.17 is not displaying a clear impulsive structure yet. We'll be cautious on bottoming signal as it enters into 75.56/76.02 support zone, at least on first attempt. On the upside, however, break of 79.79 will now argue that fall from 84.17 has completed earlier than we though and would likely target 61.8% retracement of 84.17 to 77.66 at 81.68 and above.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of trend reversal in USD/JPY yet and the whole down trend from 124.13 (2007 high) is still in progress. The question is whether price actions from 75.56 was a correction that's completed at 84.17, or a multi leg consolidation pattern. Based on the bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, we'd slightly favor the latter case and hence, another rebound would be mildly in favor after getting support from 75.56 again. Though, sustained break of 75.56 will pave the way to 70 psychological level next.

In the long term picture, with 85.51 resistance intact, there is no scope for trend reversal yet. Though, some more consolidative trading would be seen in medium term above 75.56 first before the long term down trend from 124.13 eventually resumes to 70 psychological level.