USD/JPY's fall accelerated to as low as 76.71 last week and remained weak. Initial bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 76.27 and then 75.98 low. On the the upside, above 77.56 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.26) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 75.98 low was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 75.98 towards 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 82.22 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, the minimum target of trend resumption, that is, a break of 79.75 low (1995 low) was met. While the rebound to 85.51 was strong, there is no indication of reversal of the multi-decade down trend yet. We'd look at the structure of the rise, as well as whether USD/JPY could take out 100 psychological level before giving favor to the trend reversal case. Otherwise, we'll treat current price actions as part of a long term consolidation pattern at best.

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