USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | August 14 2011 11:23 AM

USD/JPY dropped to as low as 76.30 last week but lost momentum ahead of 76.28 support and turned sideway. Nevertheless, further fall is still expected with 77.32 minor resistance intact. Break of 76.28 will confirm resumption of the whole decline from 85.51 and should target 100% projection of 81.46 to 76.28 from 80.23 at 75.05 next. On the upside, above 77.32 minor resistance will bring recovery. But we'll stay cautiously bearish as long as 80.23 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 80.23 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.

In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.