USD/JPY reversed after edging higher to 92.31 last week and the development indicates that rebound from 88.00 has completed already. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further decline should be seen to retest 88.00 low first. On the upside, in case of recovery, break of 91.60 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 92.31 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 101.43 is treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 124.13. Break of 87.12 low will confirm resumption of this down trend and should target next key level of 1995 low at 79.75. However, note that break of 92.31 resistance will firstly suggest that fall from 97.77 has completed. Additionally, this will raise the possibility that whole decline from 101.43 has finished with three waves down to 88.00 after meeting 100% projection of 101.43 to 91.73 from 97.77 at 88.07. The three wave structure will in turn indicate that rise from 87.12 is going to resume. Further break of 97.77 will target a retest of 101.43 instead.
In the long term picture, firstly, fall from 124.13 is still in progress. Such decline is treated as part of the long term down trend after triangle consolidation from 79.75 has completed at 124.13. In other words, a break of 1995 low of 79.75 is likely as fall from 124.13 extends. Break of 97.77 resistance is needed to be the first indication of bottoming in medium to longer term. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.