Despite rebounding to 90.60, USD/JPY failed to sustain gain and weakened again towards the end of the word. Fall from 92.31 should still be in progress. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week and break of 89.28 will bring fall resumption to 88.00 low first. While some recovery might be seen, break of 90.60 is needed to be first signal that USD/JPY has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the bigger picture, the bearish outlook remains unchanged. Fall from 101.43 is treated as resumption of the whole down trend from 124.13. Break of 87.12 low will confirm resumption of this down trend and should target next key level of 1995 low at 79.75. However, note that break of 92.31 resistance will firstly suggest that fall from 97.77 has completed. Additionally, this will raise the possibility that whole decline from 101.43 has finished with three waves down to 88.00 after meeting 100% projection of 101.43 to 91.73 from 97.77 at 88.07. The three wave structure will in turn indicate that rise from 87.12 is going to resume. Further break of 97.77 will target a retest of 101.43 instead.

In the long term picture, firstly, fall from 124.13 is still in progress. Such decline is treated as part of the long term down trend after triangle consolidation from 79.75 has completed at 124.13. In other words, a break of 1995 low of 79.75 is likely as fall from 124.13 extends. Break of 97.77 resistance is needed to be the first indication of bottoming in medium to longer term. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY

USD/JPY