Do you think the Chicago Blackhawks are goint to steamroll the 8th seeded Minnesota Wild? If so, you probably don't want to continue reading this article. Once we take a look at the betting odds, we find out that Chicago is favored by a full two games over Minnesota. This means that the Blackhawks must win this series in four or five games to make it worth a bet. Based on what I see, there is value to be had on the underdog Wild. Let's take a closer look at three factors to consider.
Put up your hand if you can look me in the eye and say Corey Crawford is capable of a Conne Smythe winning run. Crawford has put up excellent numbers this year, but this is not a guy who has proven anything to me yet. When the pressure is on, Crawford is a very mixed bag. The talent is there, but is the consistency? The benefit he has going for him is the team in front of him controls possession a ridiculously 55.8% of the time and provides excellent goal support. Does he have to be great to win this series? No. But does he need to be great to wrap this up in four or five games? Probably, and I'm willing to bet against it happening.
To put the Super Bowl bettting in perspective, let's consider that betting on the Pro-Bowl exceeded the Heats-Celtics and Thunder-Lakers games combined. The Pro-Bowl people.
With more than $90 million expected to be bet on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas and who knows how much in the offshore world, it's an understatement to say that people all across the world are looking for an edge. Let's take a closer look and see what we find.
Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers: SF -3.5 Markets
Are the Baltimore Ravens a team of destiny? Can anybody stop the New England Patriots offense? What does the Gronk injury mean? Let's take a closer look at this AFC conference championship.
MarketsHere's a point spread that I expected to come out higher than it should have. In the theoretical look-ahead line prior to the Divisional round, the Patriots were actually -6 favorites vs the Ravens. That's very surprising on every level. What did we see over the weekend to suggest this should come out at -9? By my numbers, the Patriots are clearly more than touchdown favorites in this match-up. I have the "true line" at -7.5. Throughout the week we've seen a trickle of support for the Ravens as we are now looking at -7.5 to -8's across the board. Where will this line go leading up to kickoff? I can't imagine it hitting -7 as most of the general public will be betting both favorites this weekend.
No Mysteries in This Game
A #1 seed in the NFC hasn't lost a conference championship game since the 2002 Philadelphia Eagles. Are the Falcons going to join them or will we see them defy the odds?
There aren't many souls in the football landscape willing to take a chance on the Houston Texans vs the New England Patriots on Sunday. I'm going to go against the grain and make a case for the Texans, so let's take a closer look at this juicy Divisional round match-up.
Before the Wild Card round, Vegas put up -7.5 in favor of the Patriots for their theoretical match-up with the Texans. After reviewing everything, this was a very accurate point spread for this game. Yet, after the weekend games, the line re-opened at -9.5. There hasn't been a lot of movement during the week as it still hovers around the -9 to -10 range (odds from SBRforum). Books know if they drop it below -9 they'll get a ton of teaser action on the Patriots.Between -7.5 and -9.5 there aren't any "key numbers", but once you hit -10 you have to begin looking at the underdog. With a 2.5 point inflation, I'm more than prepared to ride the Texans and take my chances.
Blood in the Water?