For one of these teams, this game matters. For the other, it's nothing more than a game of "pride" (if that still means anything in today's day and age). Let's dig into the Thursday Night Football affair and see what's what.
This is an interesting point spread to break down. A week ago the Bengals were -4 favorites in the Vegas look-ahead line. After what happened over the weekend, the books re-opened it at -3. That's a pretty significant adjustment as they went off one key number and onto another. The betting markets disagreed and money has consistently come in on the favorite since Sunday. Right now it sits at -4 to -5, depending on where you shop (odds from SBRforum).
This is a game I've been looking forward to for months. I've picked the Texans quite a bit this season. Despite being one of the best teams in the NFL, they continue to cover point spreads as a favorite. That mettle will be put to the test this week when they travel for a tough road game.
MarketsThe look-ahead line had the Patriots favored by -5. After the weekend they re-opened them at -4.5. Fast forward to today and we've seen somewhat of a surprising move on New England. Right now the line sits at -5.5 (odds from SBRforum).
Are the Atlanta Falcons for real? Are the Panthers better than their record? Let's dive into these questions and preview more Week 14 action.
MarketsFirst off, this line is on the verge of moving off the key number of "3". It sits at -3.25 across the board, so you can still get an affordable -3 for a little extra juice (odds from SBRforum).The line movement on this game was small, but significant. In the look-ahead line Vegas was putting up -2.5, but after the results in Week 13 it re-opened at -3. Money has steadily come in on the Falcons, which is the smart thing to do. For whatever reason that I'm still not aware, the so-called sharp minds out there have been fading Atlanta all season. Well guess what experts, they are 7-4-1 ATS this season. Do they have flaws? Yes, every team does. That shouldn't undermind what they've accomplished so far or undermine what they are good at. I'll lay the field goal and trust the mismatches.
Have the Bills turned the corner? Are the Rams on the verge of a flat performance after riding high vs the 49ers? Let's see how it will shake out.
MarketsThe standard consensus regarding home field advantage lies somewhere around 2.5/3 points on the point spread. Of course not all home fields are equal, but is Vegas trying to tell us these teams are even on a neutral field? If so, I'm more than happy to grab a full field goal with the Rams.In fact, nothing that happened on the weekend seemed to change bookmakers minds either. The look ahead line also had the Bills -3 (odds from SBRforum). If I had to set this line I'd make Buffalo -1 to -1.5 point favorites. There were signs early in the season where it looked like the Rams were going to have a home/road dichotomy this year, but they've bucked the trend and currently sit at 4-1 ATS on the road. I'll take it.
The Dallas Cowboys are in the middle of another disappointing season. Meanwhile, the Bengals are riding on a surprising hot streak. Should we expect much of the same in Week 14?
MarketsThis was a line move that I saw coming from a mile away. The Bengals were -1.5 point favorites in the look-ahead line last week, but after the weekend they re-opened at -3 (odds from SBRforum).The problem for Vegas is that the move wasn't enough. The Bengals are doing a lot of things right (Week 13 turnovers aside). Meanwhile, the Cowboys continue to struggle with the same flaws that have plagued them all year. This line should be -3.5 at the minimum, but I would've opened it at -4 myself.
Dallas: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly