Two weeks ago ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan told NPR he would be able to make a definitive call on if we face recession within 75 days.  It didn't take that long.  ECRI's indicators now point to recession, per a CNBC interview this morning.  Clients were actually told last week, but this is their first public acknowledgement.  This would confirm what copper has been 'telling' us.  Based on their track record, it's essentially now in the bag.  Or what government statistics (always biased to sunny side up due to 'statistical adjustments' over the past few decades) say.  As to depths of the recession - he says it is too soon to say.

6 minute video - email readers will need to come to site to view.

[Aug 29, 2011: Video - ECRI Updates its Thoughts on Potential Slowdown]

[Jun 14, 2011: Video - ECRI's Achuthan - Prolonged U.S. Slowdown Underway]

[Jul 7, 2011: Video - ECRI's Achuthan Sticking to Script that Slowdown is not Transitory]