This video really highlights to me how far out of consensus I must be. It's been a while since we posted any Nouriel Roubini content, and as I sat listening all I could think was that makes sense I'm with you on that point and bingo!. Then I hear the clucking from the CNBC hosts - guest or otherwise - about how these theories simply can not be true. Theories that seem so obvious to me. They contend Nouriel is ignoring the evidence of recovery all around us. I feel like taking the little video player and shaking it... hello CNBC hosts, COST-BENEFIT analysis. Do you realize you are celebrating bounces off multi decade lows? That cost a few trillion of stimulus/handouts/morphine to engineer. And yet they are still extremely limp? We are citing 33.4 hour work weeks as recovery when all time lows are 33.2 hours? Etc. You need to start somewhere logic? Gosh I can only imagine the outright cries of joy when the census workers began adding 1.3M jobs and our unemployment issues are solved. But it does help me to understand the masses on the other side of my trade and what logic they are using. Even if I think most of the 'logic' is 'denial'. I guess we'll only know in retrospect a few years from now who is correct.
Needless to say, I remain in Nouriel's camp... apparently we're both on the run outside the Matrix. Nouriel needs to stick to economic forecasting which he does a very good job of, and stay away from his market calls - which is one way to get his credibility tarnished.
(7 minute video)