Vietnam's Rice export prices rise on greater Global demand

The prices of Vietnamese rice for export have gone up by US$15-25.00 per ton since early April due to increasing Global demand and diminishing world rice reserve, said the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) Monday.

The export prices for Vietnamese rice with 5% broken grains rose to US$450.00 per ton, and rice with 25% broken grains to US$425.00 per ton, up by US$15-25.00 per ton respectively.

In Q-1 of this year, Vietnam exported 1.087-M tons of rice, at a FOB value of US$529.9-M, and CIF value of US$547.5-M, said VFA.

Entering this year, Vietnam had 1.1-Mtons of Rice in reserve which was shifted over from last year. Together with Rice output from the Winter-Spring crop, the country had a total of 3.5-M tons for consumption. As a whole, it had 4.6-M tons of Rice, mainly for export, in Q-1 this year.

To date, Vietnamese rice exporters have already signed contracts for exporting 3.6-M tons, leaving the remaining 1-M tons for reserve.

This reserve is not much compared with the growing demand from rice importers, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, China and some African countries.

So far this year, China has signed contracts to import 770,000 tons of rice from Vietnam, while the Philippines would import over 500,000 tons, and Africa 700,000 tons, VFA said.

The Vietnamese government allowed VFA's member rice exporters to purchase 1-M tons of Rice for reserve during March-April. To date, they have bought 700,000 tons, or 69% of the quotas.

Of the World's three major groups of Rice exporters capable of offering low-price, medium-price and high-price Rice, Vietnam's Rice exports cover all these 3 categories.

From late Y 2011 to February this year, Vietnam lost to Africa and India 25% of its market share for low-price rRce export.

However, since early March, the country's contracted export rice rose by 12% Y-Y, probably an indication that foreign Rice importers, dissatisfied with rice from India and Pakistan, turned again to Vietnam for Rice. This partly pushed Vietnam's rice export prices upwards

Insiders forecast that in Y 2012 India will export about 7-M tons of rice, including 5-M tons of white Rice and 2-M tons of fragrant Rice. Thailand has about 6.5-M tons and Pakistan 4-M tons for export. Meanwhile, Vietnam planned to export at least 6.5- tons to over 7-M tons.

In Q-1, Rice export from Thailand dropped by 58%, from Vietnam 41%, the United States 30%. By contrast, export from India went up by 30%.

Meanwhile, the world's food production output is expected to increase 3% in Y 2012, with the bulk from India, they said.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.