Key News

 Australia's Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Narrows in June on Gain in Exports  (Bloomberg)

  China's Stocks Not in `Bubble,' Set to Extend Rally, Harvest's Chen Says  (Bloomberg)

 China's growth figures fail to add up  (Financial Times)


“Some economists took the fact that prices were unpredictable to infer that prices were in fact “right”. However, as early as 1984 Robert Shiller, the economist, correctly and boldly called [Efficient Market Hypothesis] “one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought”. The reason this is an error is that prices can be unpredictable and still wrong; the difference between the random walk fluctuations of correct asset prices and the unpredictable wanderings of a drunk are not discernable.”

Richard Thaler, Financial Times 4 August 2009


FX Trading – Waiting for the Jobs; Plus, Canadian Dollar Comments from Blackmont ...

Since topping out on Monday the euro has been tracking sideways. The likely story is that many traders are awaiting a hint from the ADP Payrolls report due out today ... ahead of Friday's release of July US Non-Farm Payrolls. Expectations are for an improvement in the employment situation. The euro is popping towards Monday's highs as the report draws nearer. There may be some reaction to a surprise number, better or worse, today. But more than likely the most of the fireworks won't shoot of until Friday.

The British pound found some reason to rally. There's been speculation that the BOE will end their bond repurchase program because the economy is showing signs that it may be emerging from recession. This is a stark difference from the way a potential end to this program was received days ago – i.e. it's too early to stop pumping money into the economy. The British pound made a new high on this surprise optimism.

The Canadian dollar started back-tracking yesterday after comments from Finance Minister Jim Flaherty regarding the Canadian dollar becoming too strong relative to the US dollar. He noted that the Central Bank could take action to stem its appreciation if necessary. Apparently Mr. Flaherty can take action as well.

On the next page you can find more comments on the Canadian dollar, from Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor at Blackmont Capital Inc ...