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The break-out moves were caught by the Trade Plans on the European pairs, but as yet we are not seeing major global markets that look set to back the forex moves ahead of a busy economic calendar read. We still do not have a long read on any currency against the dollar, but we do now have a Mixed momentum flow that is transitioning from the recent bout of Short moves on the majors.
This is the middle phase of the forex swing change, wave three of five in the process, where we see the initial reversal from Short major currencies, to Long, not able to easily follow through, however, wave three normally reveals a distinct lack of ability to continue the recent trend. Wave one was the last part of the previous five wave cycle that had a Long dollar bias. Wave two was the sideways channel that has been in place for three weeks, and now we are looking for global markets to finish and back this middle process.
The Mixed reads look as though they will lead to a swing Long on the major currencies that will send the dollar lower in the near-term, and if that holds we will be then looking for global markets to push equities and oil higher, in wave four of the swing.
That will set up wave five, the final phase of swing change, to a new trend; short dollars. It all now depends on whether equities and oil can move higher. Look for oil holding 60.00, and S&P futures holding 895.00. If they can do that, we have a new 4 hour trend transition.