global price imbalance is sweeping its way in world economies. The U.S is still the matter of concern the definition to their recession is the matter of debate and though a wide majority considers the U.S in recession the revision to growth for the first three months of the year to 0.9% comes as a hurdle to their beliefs.
Europe is the start for this busy day and UK already has set the race to go. Nationwide the Kingdom's fourth largest mortgage lender said today that home values dropped from April by 2.5% the most on records since the index began in 1991 which takes us to the era of the last recession in the kingdom, while from a year ago prices also continued as they are down 4.4%.
Housing troubles are of the center of UK problems as the contagion from the financial crisis deepened the crunch in the sector and threatens to spill further in other sectors of the economy.
The BoE are troubled with high inflation expected to near 4.0% this year while King himself substituted his expectations for the economy from sharp slowdown to the potential of seeing no to negative quarterly growth preemptively preparing markets to the worst yet to come.
Still to come on UK is the CBI derivates trade survey which accounts for much is it covers a large portion of the services sector which accounts for nearly 74% of the aggregate economy.
As for the single currency's 15 nations the data are spread from Germany's Labor market, the economy that presents almost 1/3 of the nations' cumulative growth, and the economy that is still presenting resilience and is supporting the most growth in the euro area.
Unemployment is expected to continue sliding while still the effect of a larger labor force is to be seen on consumption patterns, as what we can consider as a flash indication to actual retail sales data in Germany and the Euro Zone the Bloomberg PMI is to come today and after the index has fell below 50 indicating contraction in sales and that is negatively affecting growth in the Union.
Consumers trim spending affecting by surging costs of energy and food in addition to inflation that is eating through their disposable income. That all is affecting their confidence levels in the economy as we await more declines today for May yet the already seen ZEW and IFO begged to differ as the sentiment is softening though not as worse as median estimates have imagined.
Now last but not least, the U.S session and the star of the day. As we all know that the U.S entities themselves define recession as consecutive SHARP DECLINES in growth levels and they did not indicate the crucial contraction rule meaning that sluggish levels are enough to convince the administration and the public that the U.S is in recession.
The advanced reading which was at 0.6% had already taken markets by surprise and for me, though it was much higher than expectations, yet did not convince me of the health and resilience the economy is in; components reflected the rise was supported by accumulating inventories which is a definite negative sign for the economy. While now as we await the second revision it is expected at 0.9% supported by no other but a shrinking deficit as imports slow due to dampened consumption and exports rose affected by a depreciating dollar.
Again those are allegations that are not convincing to me. If business investments, consumer spending, construction and industrial performance are not presenting support then the economy to me is slacking as the labor market slows and spending dawdles and income becomes restricted.
Personal consumption is expected unrevised at 1.0% and so is the Core PCE at 2.2% both indicative that Americans are yet not lured into spending to support the economy.
The feds have now indicated that rising inflation has become a focal matter to take into consideration, as they believe that decisions taken so far and rates at 2.0% are sufficient enough to stimulate growth while they fear now easing further will set price stability out of reach and create another bubble just like the last recession did with the housing market.
Be sure that the GDP reading is enough for today to shake the market, though its expected though its based on false allegations yet markets just are building a new base for once more U.S and a dollar optimistic sentiment and for that greenback might be supported if the data came in better than expectations of the components were so.
Yet if didn