MONDAY MORNING 5 /10
The national radar shows THREE areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The first region is cross the Upper Delta --- northeast ARK and southern third of MO northwest M and western TN. The second region extends from Eastern Nebraska and the 3rd area over western NEB . http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/
LAST 24 HRS... MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCUS/yesmax.html
ND saw readings only reaching 40s... 50s over MN WI OH northern IND northern IA... L 60s over Lower ECB Lower WCB... M 60s over central Plains and the Delta... 70s over eastern COL and western NEB... L 80s over Gulf coast.
RAINFALL 7AM CDT SUNDAY - 7AM CDT MONDAY Light to Moderates rain fell over eastern WY SD NEB KS and eastern OK.... heavy rains over MO ARK. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/prec_day.html
in WY... Gillette 0.21 Casper 0.05 in NEB... Alliance 0.23 O'Neil 0.15 Imperial 0.17 McCook 0.12 in SD... Rapid City 0.61 Ellsworth AFB 0.37 Mitchell 0.11 Yankton 0.02 in KS... Dodge City 0.04 Manhattan 0.36 Chanute 0.17 Winfield 0.15 in OK... Altus 0.19 Hobart 0.05 Ponca City 0.27 Bartlesville 0.21 Muskogee 0.27 McAlester 0.18 in MO...Joplin 0.67 Springfield 1.15 West Plains 0.94 Rolla 0.30 Jefferson City 0.38 In ARK.. Fayetteville 1.03 Ft Smith 1.26 Little Rock 0.66 Stuttgart 0.61 Texarkana 0.43
THE BOTTOM LINE?
Two rain event next 6-7 days then pattern turns drier for Most of the Central and Upper Plains and the Midwest. This new pattern appears to last into the 11-15 day. The Lower Plains however looks rather wet in 6-10 day and 11 - 15 day.
SHORT TERM MAY 10 - 11: No changes at all. The interaction between the Low over eastern COL and the Big cool High over MI... is producing strong south wind inflow from the Gulf into the Delta and into the Midwest. This moisture source is feeding storm development and enhancing rainfall rates. This system still looks to be a major rain event for Much of the eastern portions of the Upper Plains as well as aLL of the WCB and MOST of the ECB... 75% coverage of 0.25 to 2.0
The areas which will miss the significant rain and this system will be ND and northern MN .. the Lower Plains (south of the KS NEB state line) and the ECB south of I-70 or rainfall amounts will drop off dramatically. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_054l.gif
MEDIUM RANGE MAY 12 - 14 : The next system comes in right with only a short period or break of 24 hours with no rain. Because of the strong Ridge over the southeast USA this Low tracks further to the North and west.... into the Great Lakes which means much less rain for the ECB. This Low will bring widespread moderate to heavy rains to the eastern portions of LOWER Plains... and the WCB... 75% coverage of 0.25 to 2.00... Moderate to the eastern central and Upper Plains.... 50% coverage of 0.25 to 1.00 .
For the the ECB this Low will be essentially a miss... best rains will be over ILL...50% coverage of 0.50 to 1.50 BIASED OVER WESTERN ILL... for the rest of the ECB.... 35% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50
SURFACE MAP early MAY 11 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif
TOTAL FORECASTED RAINFALL from 0z GFS MAY 13 - 14 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif
6-10 DAY: MAY 15 - 19 :
The southern end of this front STALLS over TX and ARK and the Deep South in this time period. This stalled front becomes a mechanism for seeing increased showers and storms over much of TX and the Delta which spreads across the Gulf Coast states. TX and OK will see 60% coverage DAY 6-7 and 8 of 0.50 to 2.50 which will decrease to 50% coverage of 0.25 to 1.0 while the Gulf coast sees 60% coverage of 0.25 to 2.00 Day 9-10.
In this Period the pattern begins to change. The Ridge over the SE states moves backwards... into the Plains / Rockies as new trough digs into the Eastern Pacific and West. over the past several weeks whenever we have seen a trough in the Jet stream move into the West coast it eiyher comes east or ejects strong low pressure east into the Plains and Midwest.
In this New pattern... by day 8-9-10... the West coast trough CANNOT come east because the Ridge over the southeast states has shifted WEST into the Plains/ Rockies. This shuts off the supply of rainstorms and Low pressure areas and the Plains and Midwest turn drier.
11-15 DAY: MAY 20 - 24 : The 0z GFS EURO and Canadian are in strong agreement with this new pattern as is the GFS and Euro ensembles. The Euro has a deep trough over the East coast day 10- into day 12 which means the Midwest is Miuch cooler than the Plains BUT the overall pattern is Much drier .
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