WXRISK.COM  

MONDAY MORNING    5 /10

CURRENTLY... 

The national radar shows THREE  areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The first region is cross the Upper Delta --- northeast ARK and southern third of MO northwest M and western TN. The second region extends from Eastern Nebraska  and the   3rd area over  western NEB . http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?radar_us+/2h/

 LAST  24 HRS...  MAX TEMPERATURES    SUNDAY    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SFCUS/yesmax.html

 ND   saw readings only reaching  40s... 50s over   MN  WI  OH  northern IND  northern IA... L 60s over  Lower ECB Lower WCB... M 60s over central Plains  and the Delta...  70s over  eastern COL and  western NEB...  L 80s over  Gulf coast.     

RAINFALL 7AM CDT   SUNDAY  -  7AM CDT MONDAY  Light  to Moderates   rain fell over   eastern WY  SD   NEB  KS  and eastern OK.... heavy rains over   MO   ARK. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/prec_day.html  

in  WY... Gillette 0.21   Casper 0.05 in NEB... Alliance 0.23  O'Neil 0.15   Imperial 0.17   McCook 0.12  in SD... Rapid City 0.61   Ellsworth AFB  0.37   Mitchell 0.11   Yankton 0.02     in KS...  Dodge City 0.04  Manhattan 0.36   Chanute 0.17   Winfield 0.15     in OK... Altus 0.19   Hobart 0.05   Ponca City 0.27   Bartlesville 0.21    Muskogee 0.27   McAlester  0.18   in MO...Joplin 0.67  Springfield 1.15    West Plains 0.94   Rolla 0.30  Jefferson City 0.38     In ARK.. Fayetteville 1.03    Ft Smith 1.26  Little  Rock  0.66   Stuttgart  0.61  Texarkana 0.43  

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THE  BOTTOM LINE? 

 Two   rain event  next 6-7 days then  pattern  turns  drier    for Most of the  Central and Upper Plains and  the  Midwest.  This  new pattern appears   to last into the  11-15 day.   The Lower Plains  however looks   rather  wet   in 6-10 day and 11 -  15  day.   

 SHORT TERM  MAY  10 - 11: No changes at all.   The   interaction  between   the Low   over  eastern  COL and the  Big cool High over  MI...  is  producing strong south  wind   inflow  from the  Gulf into the  Delta and  into the   Midwest. This   moisture source is feeding   storm   development and enhancing rainfall rates.  This system still looks to be a major rain event for Much of the eastern portions of the Upper Plains  as well as aLL of the WCB and MOST of the ECB... 75% coverage of 0.25 to 2.0

The areas which will miss the significant rain and this system will be ND and northern MN .. the Lower Plains (south of the KS NEB state line) and the ECB south of I-70 or rainfall amounts will drop off dramatically. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p48_054l.gif

MEDIUM RANGE   MAY 12 - 14 : The  next system comes in right with only a  short    period or break of 24 hours   with no rain.   Because of the strong Ridge over the  southeast USA  this Low  tracks further to the North and west.... into the  Great Lakes  which means  much less rain for the  ECB.  This  Low will bring  widespread  moderate  to heavy rains to  the     eastern portions of  LOWER  Plains... and  the  WCB... 75% coverage of 0.25 to 2.00... Moderate to the  eastern central and  Upper Plains....   50% coverage of  0.25 to 1.00 .

For the the ECB this Low will be  essentially a miss... best rains will be over   ILL...50%  coverage of  0.50 to 1.50  BIASED  OVER  WESTERN  ILL...    for the rest of the  ECB.... 35% coverage of  0.10 to 0.50 

SURFACE MAP early  MAY 11 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif

TOTAL  FORECASTED   RAINFALL from 0z GFS   MAY 13 - 14 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_120l.gif

6-10 DAY:  MAY  15 - 19 : 

The  southern end of this front  STALLS  over  TX   and ARK   and the  Deep South in this time period. This stalled front becomes a  mechanism for  seeing increased showers and  storms over  much of TX and the Delta   which spreads across the  Gulf Coast states.   TX and OK   will see 60% coverage  DAY 6-7 and 8   of 0.50 to 2.50   which will  decrease to   50% coverage of  0.25 to 1.0   while the   Gulf coast sees    60% coverage of  0.25 to 2.00    Day 9-10.

In this Period the  pattern   begins to change.  The    Ridge over the    SE states    moves backwards... into the Plains / Rockies  as  new trough   digs into the  Eastern Pacific and West. over the past   several weeks whenever  we have seen a trough  in the Jet stream  move into the West coast it   eiyher  comes east or ejects   strong low pressure  east into the Plains and  Midwest.

In this  New pattern... by day 8-9-10... the West coast  trough CANNOT   come east because the   Ridge over the southeast states   has  shifted  WEST into the Plains/ Rockies.    This shuts off the  supply of  rainstorms and  Low pressure areas   and the Plains and Midwest turn  drier.

 11-15 DAY:   MAY 20  - 24 : The 0z GFS    EURO and Canadian  are in strong  agreement with this new pattern as is  the GFS  and Euro   ensembles.   The  Euro   has a    deep trough over the  East coast  day 10- into  day 12  which  means the Midwest is Miuch cooler than the Plains    BUT the overall pattern  is Much drier .

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