MONDAY A/C/E/ 535 PM CDT 26 JULY 2010
The late afternoon radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php is finally showing significant activity across the Delta and portions of the southeast states. There are numerous clusters of showers and thunderstorms across central MO 60% coverage... central and northern ARK (65% coverage) ... over central and eastern TX (50% coverage) and over eastern TN far northeast AL and far northwest GA into SC....60% coverage of those areas. ALL of OK KS NEB SD ND eastern MT eastern WY eastern COL and the Midwesr regions are Dry.
Any Late Day Model changes? (12z European comes out at 115 pm CDT... Euro Ensembles 330pm CDT ... 18z GFS 5PM CDT)
The 12z Monday European model continues to argue against any sort of ridge or dome trying to build back into the Midwest or the plains in any way in the 6-10 day and or the 11-15 day. By day 6 the Dome over the Southeast states has moved back to the central Lower Plains... and by day 9-10 the Dome is located over
COL UT NM and western TX. Over the eastern half of the the Conus in the 6-10 day there are 2 cold fronts that sweep through the Midwest and off the East coast . This trough in the Jet stream means strong cold fronts at the surface.... so again the 12z euor shows NO heat threat of any kind.
CPC's 6-10 DAY and 11-15 DAY
6-10 DAY MAPS... shows a large area of ABOVE NORMAL temperatures covering ALL of the Plains.... all of the Midwest and Deep South and into the Middle Atlantic region. Embedded in that area is a region of MUCH ABOVE NORMAL temps over the Lower WCB and Lower ECB as well as the Deep South.
There is a large area of ABOVE NORMAL rainfall over eastern AZ eastern UT western NM WY NEB MN WI IA into all of the ECB... the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. There is an area of BELOW NORMAL rainfall area over the Lower Plains.
WXRISK's commets on 6-10 day: The Midwest is way too HOT
8-14 DAY MAPS... shows a large area of ABOVE NORMAL temperatures covering all of the Plains Midwest and Delta and most of the Northeast -- except for New England. Embedded in that areas is a large region of MUCH ABOVE NORMAL temperatures over southern IA MO and Northern ARK western ILL western TN and northern MS.
There is a large area of ABOVE NORMAL rainfall running from eastern UT eastern AZ COL WY eastern MT...into ND SD NEB.... into the WCB and all of the ECB... into the Middle Atlantic states. Embedded in that region a small area of MUCH ABOVE NORMAL rainfall over ND SD southern MN and IA. There is an area of BELOW NORMAL rainfall over TX and OK. TEMPS http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
WXRISK's comments on 8-14 day: The Midwest is way too HOT and it is too wet East of Interstate 35. .
DT WXRISK.COM 804 307 8070