Another week has started with markets down so far, as investors are bracing themselves for a really eventful week, what with G20 nearing and payroll data out of US later on! The new found confidence is fading away today and it will be interesting to see how New York will react during the day! One thing is for sureï¿½ï¿½One week really becomes easily next weekï¿½ï¿½s collapse.
The EUR/USD is trading higher since market open last night, and the pair broke important 1.3260 very easily and looks good for more losses as long as that level holds for now. The daily low so far was below 1.32, at 1.3160 which is a good support level on the daily charts. If the pair breaks the latter level then 1.31 ahead of 1.3080 becomes the next target!
The GBP/USD is also sliding today, however so far the pair holds 1.41 as support. A clear level of the latter level may open us the way for further weakness towards very important psychological level of 1.40.
This week is full of important events and its outcome may very well determine the market direction for the coming days! The economic calendar had a few economic releases today, with Euro zone consumer confidence coming out worse than expected earlier, giving yet more reasons for investors to sell the euro further. A speech by Trichet is expected soon in front of the EU parliament committee regarding the monetary policy and current economic turmoil.
Investors are waiting to hear form Mr. Trichet as this week we have ECBï¿½ï¿½s monetary decision regarding the rates. Speculations are growing amongst traders that the Euro area ï¿½ï¿½bossï¿½ï¿½ will cut rates by 50 bps this week and maybe even more next month. The deteriorating economic data out of Euro zone is not helping investorï¿½ï¿½s confidence and ECB members are hinting that the bank may follow the FED and BOEï¿½ï¿½s lead regarding zero rates!
Also this week we have many important economic data out of US, with ISM Manufacturing, housing data as well as unemployment rate being the ones to follow and the highly awaited nonfarm payrolls on Friday! Investors will have their eyes and ears open regarding the upcoming G20 which will be taking place in London, as many important economic matters will be discussed amid the current crisis. Only today, German Prime Minister Merkel expressed her worries about the EU economic outlook and the need for more stimulus packages in order for the economy to be revived. Her words had a bitter tone as to how ECB handled the monetary policy in the previous months and how it affected the Euro area economy.
In other markets, gold continues to fall as its losing appeal from investors due mainly to the continuing economic strains! However, as gold has appreciated so much in the last few weeks, this could easily be a profit taking move by investors, before further upside occurs! For now, gold has to stay above $900 in order more upside to be seen and for now the levels to watch are $900 - $980. A clear break of either will give the next direction!
The dollar seems strong again and as I mentioned previously, it is the result of risk aversion! Investors still are turning to the greenback for safe haven purposes and that may continue this week coming into the G20, as there are too many risks to the downside. Traders are finding it hard to keep their new found confidence, even after Obamaï¿½ï¿½s numerous efforts to keep everyone positive.
With the prospect of higher unemployment form US and an even worse payroll number, it will be interesting to see how markets react, and if dollar continue its current dominationï¿½ï¿½