Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Intraday pivots and Intermediate-term support and resistance
Multiple Time-frame Analysis
- The market did not top off as anticipated in our last EUR/USD update . The rally continued, as the market was supported at 1.34. The bearish scenario opens up if 1.34 is broken. The target for that swing would be the 1.3250 pivot.
- The count of a bullish impulse wave still looks valid, so we can still be expecting topping very soon for a meaningful correction to this EUR/USD rally.
- Then a bearish attempt would be a wave b, leading to another rally in wave c, after which, the downtrend in EUR/USD should resume.
- The 4H chart shows the market should be completing a wave 5, as it attacks the 1.3550 resistance area.
- How does the internal structure look like?
- The EUR/USD in the 1H chart has given us some strong bearish candles indicative of reversal-sentiments. The RSI however showed us yesterday a positive reversal, and the market has almost reached that bullish projection but stopped short at 1.3360.
- We now have bearish divergence in the 4H and 1H charts.
- The key for the bearish outlook is still a break below 1.34. Also, look for the 1H RSI to finally break below 40, and preferably 30 for a bearish momentum breakout signal. Otherwise, there is still too much bullish for a meaningful correction.
- The near-term target for a break below 1.34 would be 1.3360 area (61.8% retracement). If the market breaks below 1.3350, we can target 1.3250.
Is the EUR/USD topping? We would love to hear what you think.
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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist