Last week's currency trading review

The Dollar was under pressure but did not fall as much as the rise in stocks would have predicted with key levels on the EURO and GBP keeping most other currencies rangebound. Traditional risk currencies such as the AUD and CAD were the main gainers at the expense of the safe haven YEN. Existing Home Sales gained to 4.89m vs. 4.72m previously. June Consumer Confidence was also revised higher to 66.0 vs. 64.6 previously. The Euro broke above 1.5250 but didn't extend gains as the recent 1.38-1.4200 range was just shifted higher and the daily rallies were sold. The uptrend is still in place with higher lows and the pair is threatening to test year highs at 1.4338. Industrial Orders remained weak -0.2% in May. German IFO at 87.3 vs. 85.9 in June helped lift sentiment. The EUR/USD gained 0.75% closing at 1.4207, after opening the week at 1.4101.

The Japanese Yen weakened considerably as investors used the equity rally as reason to increase riskier bets on commodity currencies. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY gained with there respective majors although USD/JPY was mixed only rallying when the USD found some friends on supportive comments from China and Bernanke. The USD/JPY closed up 0.64% at 94.83 after opening the week at 94.22. The GBP gained during the week but was very volatile with economic data dampening risk appetite. CBI Industrial Order Expectations fell to -59 vs. -46 forecast and -51 initially. Preliminary Q2 GDP fell -0.8% vs. -0.3% forecast but on the positive side June Retail Sales gained 1.2% vs. 0.4% forecast. GBP/USD gained +0.59% closing at 1.6433 after opening at 1.6336. The AUD continued were it left off on Friday gaining with stocks and Oil but failed to make fresh year highs with commentators speculating the RBA was selling up there to stop the AUD gaining too much. Q2 PPI was -0.8% q/q but CPI gained 0.5% q/q. The AUD/USD closed up 1.91% at 0.8171 after opening at 0.8015.

The forex trading week preview

In the States; On Monday, June Existing Home Sales forecast at 2.9% vs. -0.6% previously. On Tuesday, CB Consumer Confidence for July forecast at 49 vs. 49.3 previously. On Wednesday, June Durable Goods Orders are forecast at -0.6% vs. 1.8% previously. Also on Thursday, Fed Beige Book released. On Friday, Q2 GDP is forecast at -1.5% vs. -5.5% previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In the Eurozone; on Monday GFK consumer confidence is forecast at 2.9 in August. On Wednesday, German CPI is forecast at -0.3% vs. 0.1% y/y. On Thursday, German Retail sales (June) are forecast at 0.4% vs. -1.3% previously m/m. Also released, German Unemployment rate forecast at 8.4% in July vs 8.3% previously. On Friday, EU Unemployment is forecast at 9.7% vs. 9.5% previously. In the UK; On Wednesday, June Mortgage Approvals are forecast at 47 vs. 43.4 previously. On Friday, GFK Consumer confidence forecast at -23 vs. -25 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Japan; On Wednesday, June Retail Sales forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.1% previously. Thursday sees Industrial Production (June) Forecast at 2.5% vs. 5.7% previously. On Friday, June Jobless Rate forecast at 5.2% vs. 5.2% previously. Also released, National CPI forecast at -1.8% y/y. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

In Australia; light data week with Governor Stevens speaking on Tuesday and RBNZ interest rate decision forecast unchanged at 2.5%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3749

1.3833

1.4130

1.4201

1.4267

USD/JPY

91.74

92.72

94.20

94.89

95.46

GBP/USD

1.5985

1.6222

1.6350

1.6546

1.6745

AUD/USD

0.7703

0.7814

0.8030

0.8155

0.8237

XAU/USD

905.00

918.00

938.00

948.00

965.00


Euro - 1.4130
Initial support at 1.3833 (Jul 8 low) followed by 1.3749 (Jun 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4201 (July 1 high) followed by 1.4267 (Jun 5 high)

Yen - 94.20
Initial support is located at 92.72 (Jul 14 low) followed by 91.74 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.89 (Jul 8 high) followed by 95.46 (Jul 7 high).

Pound - 1.6350
Initial support at 1.6222 (July 14) followed by 1.5985 (Jun 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6546 (Jul 1 high) followed by 1.6745 (June 30 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8030
Initial support at 0.7814 (July 14 low) followed by the 0.7703 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8155 (June 30 high) followed by 0.8237 (Jun 11 high).

Gold - 938
Initial support at 918 (Jul 8 low) followed by 905 (July 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 948 (June 26 high) followed by 965 (Jun 10 high).