“Although there are, without doubt, setups in the markets for other traders, I am diligent to stick with what works for me. I want to maintain my discipline and self-control. I have to control the burning itch to put on a trade.” – Joe Ross
This is an update on some of the movements on the markets and what I’m doing about them. The analyses are based on 4-hour charts, looking at the trend. My preferred leverage is 1:100 and my position size is 0.01 lots for each $2000. The risk per trade stands at 0.5%. The Stops are my life insurance policy. I use the Price Behavior rules for strategic decisions and customized indicators for tactical entries. I believe that a ‘buy’ signal that fails is a ‘sell’ signal; and a ‘sell’ signal that fails is a ‘buy’ signal. I open primary positions with a risk-to-reward of 1:3, riding the trend until the target is hit or I’m stopped out. The value of patience will forever be emphasized. As long as I stick to my rules and keep my risk low, I’m immune to fear.
I’m convinced that prices move according to human emotions. When a great number of institutions become avaricious, the outcome may be negative since they’d be forced to smooth their existing orders. This is also true of private traders. It’s incumbent on a private trader to control risk and flow along the trend as market movers act, as long as the trend is valid.
Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.
Primary Trend: Bullish
This week, what started in bearish mode has turned bullish. There were exploding price movements on many pairs and crosses on Tuesday, and the AUDUSD was no exception; though the movements on some other pairs and crosses were more serious. I’m still looking for a shorting possibility.
Primary trend: bearish
After a massive drop in price of this pair, there’s been a slow but vivid pullback. Since the NZDUSD tends to be positively correlated with the AUDUSD most of the time, one may assume that the bullish outlook on the latter is precarious. If you hear about a new directional craze you can be assured you’ve already missed it.
Primary trend: Bullish
The bullish outlook has been seriously violated on this cross, and if the present scenario continues, the bulls may be rendered totally powerless. In view of this, I’d prefer to look for some shorting opportunities.
Primary trend: Bearish
Anyone who went long would’ve been battered on this cross except his/her loss was cut short. Even any pullback in the price has been an excellent opportunity for speculators to orient themselves with the bears. You can see for yourself by calculating the highs and the lows of the historical bars on the 4-hour chart. Sometimes the most recent bar isn’t included in calculating the highest high or the lowest low.
Primary trend: Bearish
The price on this pair is moving along the SMA 50, which is below the SMA 200. The ADX 20 is below level 30, emphasizing a quiet market. -DI has just moved above +DI. This looks like the beginning of a new trend, especially given the anticipated weakness in the EUR. I’d be looking for a shorting entry.
Primary trend: Bullish
The bears’ power has just been rendered invalid. This may present a new opportunity for trend riders to go bullish. If the market would go bullish, the situation is still early to be taken advantage of. We need to forget what happened to us in the past and begin to look for new opportunities. I don’t care about a mistake made 3 seconds ago, but I care about what I’m going to do from the next moment on.
Conclusion: As far as trading is concerned, extremely simple systems can generate astounding results. You’d only give yourself headache by going after intricate strategies. If you have a simple trading system, simple risk control method, simple trading rules, and you follow them consistently – you’d become permanently victorious in the financial markets, and for as long as you’re a trader.
I’d like to conclude this article with quotes from Dr. Gary Dayton:
1. “In any endeavor – whether the goal is to become a competent trader, surgeon, athlete, psychologist, musician, lawyer, or pilot – the path is the same: Dedication to the goal, a lot of hard work, and a willingness to keep picking yourself up when you fall, over and over. I would like to be able to say it is easier than all that, but it really isn’t.”
2. “Technical skills are important, but so are mental skills. Spend time learning how to stay focused on the present moment. Learn how to ‘mentally park’ losses and trading errors. Learn how to let winning trades run and cut losing trades short. These are all crucial mental skills that are not found in reading the MACD or price bars.”
Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.
With best regards,
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NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.
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