Swing states, the handful of electorate gold that can make or break a bid for the Oval Office, will once again be at the very core of the U.S. presidential election and this year 13 states have earned the designation.
According to the latest poll analysis from the Associated Press, Democrat Hillary Clinton currently has the edge over Republican Donald Trump in terms of projected electoral votes with a little more than two months remaining until Election Day. If the election were held today, Clinton would surpass the required 270 electoral vote threshold with 273 compared to Trump’s 191.
However, as many as six states remain a “toss-up,” or swing state, while 11 other states are presently leaning toward one candidate but can’t be called locks for either candidate. Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, and Iowa are currently considered swing states, with the AP analysis weighing factors like “electoral history, demographic trends and campaign priorities such as advertising, travel, and on-the-ground staff.”
Those 11 states that are only "leaning" could either help Clinton tighten her perceived control over the race or fuel Trump’s surprising bid for the presidency. Clinton reportedly has footholds in Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado, with New Hampshire only recently starting to lean Democratic. Trump, meanwhile, maintains some control over Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, Utah, and Nebraska.
The AP analysis falls in line with many recent polls, which tend to give Clinton the edge over Trump. According to Real Clear Politics, two polls give Clinton five and six-point leads, respectively, while another puts Trump ahead by four points, and a fourth calls it a tie as of Monday.
A recent survey conducted by NBC News, the Wall Street Journal and Marist College found Trump and Clinton are “deadlocked” in four states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. The poll shows Trump ahead by one point in Arizona and three points in Georgia, while Clinton holds slim one-point advantages in Nevada and New Hampshire.